2015 Waterfowl Forecast

a slight increase from last year’s record total and the largest since standardized surveys began in 1955. This year’s mallard breeding population of 11.6 million birds was also a record, eclipsing the previous all-time high of 11.2 million birds set in 1958. In more good news for duck hunters, green-winged teal numbers were up 19 percent, hitting a record high of almost 4.1 million birds. Populations of gadwalls, redheads, canvasbacks, blue-winged teal, American wigeon, and northern shovelers were also well above their long-term averages, while northern pintails and scaup remained below their long-term averages.

Although large numbers of birds returned to the breeding grounds this spring, wetland conditions were generally less favorable for waterfowl production across much of the Prairie Pothole Region. May ponds—the unit of measure for wetland abundance on the prairies—decreased 12 percent in 2015, from almost 7.2 million ponds in 2014 to approximately 6.3 million ponds this spring. The total May pond count remained 21 percent above the long-term average, largely due to carryover water stored in wetland basins from the previous year. However, small seasonal wetlands, which are especially important to breeding dabbling ducks, were in short supply in many areas. Faced with drier conditions on the prairies, many waterfowl continued migrating north to the Boreal Forest, where surveys indicated that duck numbers were up significantly.

“An early spring balanced with poorer habitat conditions was apparent in this year’s survey,” says DU Chief Conservation Officer Paul Schmidt. “In addition to reduced precipitation over the winter and early spring, we have lost crucial nesting habitat with the decrease in Conservation Reserve Program lands and continuing conversion of habitat to agricultural production across the U.S. prairies. Fortunately, these conditions had minimal impacts on this year’s overall breeding duck numbers, but hunters should be concerned about these trends and what they might mean in future years. We have experienced good moisture on the prairies and liberal bag limits for more than two decades. Continuing habitat losses and drier conditions have the potential to change this scenario in the future.”

May pond counts and waterfowl breeding population estimates are compiled during extensive air and ground surveys conducted by the USFWS, Canadian Wildlife Service (CWS), state and provincial wildlife agencies, and other partners. These surveys are essential to managing waterfowl populations and setting hunting regulations. The following report provides an overview of the status of habitat conditions and waterfowl populations across key breeding areas in the United States and Canada.  

This year’s mallard breeding population of 11.6 million birds was a record, eclipsing the previous all-time high of 11.2 million birds set in 1958.